Page 78 - Regional_rice_report_with_full_bookmarks

PROJECT “NETWORK FOR AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT
THINK-TAKS FOR COUNTRIES IN MEKONG-SUB REGION” (NARDT)

spells. Rice varieties can be developed for these areas affected by climate change
to allow them to adapt to the stresses using a story map indicator which determines
the distribution of rainfall, resulting in better adaptability to drought. (ii) A manual
for the online system is developed for the use of the Lao PDR Climate Service for
Agriculture (LaCSA) under the Global Environment Facility. The LaCSA crop calendar
provides a selection of the major crops and livestock for each province. (iii) Seasonal
forecasts help farmers plan the next cropping season, develop an appropriate crop
calendar, and assess potential strategies against weather extremities. Effective use
of the seasonal forecasts and related agrometeorological advisories can minimize
impacts from climate risks in crop production (iv) Most irrigation schemes are of
the traditional weir type in the northern and central regions where the mountains
prevail, while pump irrigation is concentrated in the southern region. Several years
ago, due to the low level of efficiency and natural disasters, there was a development
in irrigated rice production. Most farmers across Lao PDR have built weirs and canals
for centuries to provide additional irrigation to their rice fields during the rainy season.
Traditional irrigation includes weirs made of logs and stones. However, the traditional
model focuses mainly on rain-fed rice production by partly providing for limited dry-
season production in areas where the streams are critical during the dry season and
farmers see the potential to produce more crops. Expansion of water storage capacity
over the past few years has been largely due to the use of pumps from the river and
branches of the Mekong River. Though there is an investment to develop a proper
water distribution system, many factors deter the use of this irrigation model.

Climate change is predicted to become more severe and unpredictable in
the future. Temperatures and rainfall in three countries are expected to rise by 2100,
according to projections. Furthermore, extreme weather events are expected to
become more common and destructive, with an increase in extreme rainfall events,
droughts, and floods in Cambodia; an increase in extreme flood and drought events
in Lao PRD; and an increase in strong and very strong typhoons, the intensity of
droughts, number of hot days in Viet Nam. This shift will have a significant impact on
agriculture in each country, particularly in the rice sector. In the future, Cambodia will
have up to 70% reduction in wet season rice production in the SRES-A2 scenario, 40%
reduction in dry season rice and other dry season crops. While, in Lao PRD, increased
floods and droughts can damage agriculture production, especially rice, and damage
infrastructure. In addition, the delayed onset of monsoon can affect rainfed agricultural
production, and rainfall variability from June to October can affect rice production. In
Viet Nam, the loss and damage caused by the sea-level rise to agriculture can reach
nearly 43 billion USD from 2020 to 2100. Besides, rice yield continues to be affected
by changes in climatic conditions. According to INDC Viet Nam forecast (2015), if
climate changes according to the middle scenario (scenario RCP 4.5), spring rice yield
will decrease by 405.8 kg/ha in 2030 and 716.6 kg/ha in 2050, the potential output
of the spring rice crop will be at risk of about 1.2 million tons in 2030 and 2.16 million
tons in 2050.
4.2. Other factors affecting on the rice sector
4.2.1. Domestic and international consumption trends

Cambodia’s domestic demands in average for 5-year period (2016 – 2020)
was 2,31 million tons as food requirement, milled rice surplus was 3,61 million tons
and paddy surplus were 5,64 million tons. This shows that the production for rice in
Cambodia was sufficient for domestic food security and made a surplus for exports.

77