During the period from 1900 to the early 1950s, there were often significant areas of Laos with both periodic and chronic rice shortages. Total annual rice production during this period fluctuated just over 500,000 t in 1923 to an average of less than 300,000 t during the 1930s. In upland areas, rice shortages for consumption were made up by maize (from upland swiddens) and various tuber crops. However, in lowland areas, the rice deficits were not so readily replaced by alternative foods. In recent times, in the main areas of lowland rice cultivation, the level of rice selfsufficiency from year-to-year has primarily reflected the occurrence of natural disasters – droughts and floods, and occasionally pest and disease problems. At a national level, the decision in the early 1990s to expand the area of irrigated rice production has, followed by the adoption of improved production practices in the lowland environments, has brought about a rapid change in production and reported levels of national rice self-sufficiency. Production from the dry-season irrigated environment in 2010 accounted for about 16.7%  (512,000 t) of total production (3,067,000 t) for that year, compared with less than 3% (41,000 t) coming from the irrigated environment in 1990.The most recent population projections for the Lao PDR are based on the 2005 Population and Housing Census. From a population of about 5.622 million in 2005, the population is projected to increase by 29.2% to 7.261 million in 2020. The projected milled rice requirement for national rice self-sufficiency associated with this population increase, 1.012 million tons in 2005 to 1.307 million tons in 2020 (this is based on a requirement of 180 kg of milled rice per person per annum). Using WFP based criteria of a milling out percentage of 60% and a 14% deduction to account for post-harvest losses, use for seed and other non direct consumption use, this equates a production requirement of 2.513 million tons of unmilled paddy rice in 2020. Total rice production in 2010 was reported to be approximately 3.063 million tons of unmilled paddy, thereby exceeding the projected national production needs for both 2015 and 2020. However, it has long been acknowledged that national rice self-sufficiency does not necessarily translate into regional, provincial or household self-sufficiency. Rice surpluses of recent years in areas with double cropping potential as a result of the expansion of the irrigated rice cultivation, have not necessarily alleviated the chronic rice shortages of many upland areas. Levels of poverty are closely linked to levels of food (primarily rice) sufficiency. The level of rice deficiency is currently generally greatest within Mon-Khmer groups in upland areas, and least in the Tai-Lao who predominately inhabit the lowlands. Rice shortages in the uplands generally average 3-4 months but can be as much as 8 months and are chronic; in the lowlands they average 1-3 months and vary from year-to-year, depending on natural disasters, particularly drought and floods, and place-to-place, reflecting irrigation potential and the availability of land. Further increases in national rice production through to 2020 will need to be associated with increased commercialization of production and, in particular, the development of the export market for Lao rice.

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